Financials

Revenue Projections (3-case)

AI Diligence Console

Rōvn 3-Case Revenue Model Summary

Date: 2026-05-26 (rebuild, supersedes 2026-05-14 draft) Horizon: 5 years (Y1 = 2026 / Y5 = 2030) Currency: USD, GAAP-style ARR (annualized recurring revenue at period end) Status: Founder review draft. All numbers are projections, Rōvn is pre-launch with zero revenue, zero paying customers, zero signed LOIs.

Doctrine spine. AI operates the workflow. Source systems prove the facts. Humans make every regulated decision. The model below monetizes the operating network for the healthcare workforce, verify a clinician once, reuse everywhere, never an autonomous decision engine.

Path discipline. Pricing was confirmed at $10K/mo Core ($120K ACV) and $20K/mo Operator ($240K ACV). The prior draft (2026-05-14) carried a 2,330-logo Y5 narrative built when those tiers were assumed at $10K/yr / $20K/yr, that math is now incompatible with the real ACVs and has been retired. This rebuild trades logo velocity for logo quality: ~150-300 paid facility logos by Y5 at $120K-$240K blended ACV, not 2,330 at $20K blended. This is a focused build of the operating network for the healthcare workforce, not a logo-velocity SaaS land grab. The ICP is disciplined: multi-site provider groups and ASCs, 30, 300 clinicians, GA / Southeast first. Pre-seed healthcare-vertical investors will respect ICP discipline over hockey-stick logo claims for the credentialing space.

1. Headline Three-Case Table (ARR at year end, projections)

Case	Y1 (2026)	Y2 (2027)	Y3 (2028)	Y4 (2029)	Y5 (2030)	Y5 ARR Case
Bear	$0.13M	$1.14M	$4.97M	$13.97M	$29.36M	$30M (floor)
Base	$0.24M	$2.44M	$9.92M	$25.61M	$46.74M	$45M (midpoint)
Bull	$0.42M	$3.93M	$16.46M	$37.72M	$66.97M	$60M (ceiling, capped report at ~$60M)

Headline-vs-build reconciliation (ARR vs total revenue). The Base Y5 headline of $46.74M is total revenue, not pure ARR: it is the $45.3M recurring ARR detailed in §4 ($36.3M Facility workflow SaaS + $6.0M Verified API + $3.0M Platform) plus ~$1.4M of one-time 90-day Pilot services bookings recognized on top. Reported externally as the ~$45M ARR midpoint, the ~$1.4M Pilot delta is one-time services revenue, not ARR and not new committed money. Bear Y5 likewise reconciles to a $28.40M build (§5), reported as a ~$30M floor (rounded up for a round-number floor, not a separate number). All figures are projections; Rōvn is pre-launch with zero revenue and zero paying customers.

Y5 Base midpoint reconciliation at $45M: Facility workflow SaaS ~$36.3M (220 Operator logos × $165K blended) + Verified API ~$6.0M (100 customers × $60K) + Platform ~$3.0M (1-2 Platform contracts) + Pilot bookings memo ~$1.4M (one-time, recognized as services revenue, NOT in ARR).

ARR is reported at end of fiscal year. Mid-year revenue is recognized but lower than ending ARR due to ramp. See ROVN_3CASE_MODEL.xlsx SCENARIO_OUTPUT tab for live formulas. All figures are projections.

2. Revenue Surfaces

Rōvn has three revenue surfaces. Two paid, one free funnel.

Surface	Pricing	Role
Passport	Free for healthcare workers	Funnel + network
Facility workflow layer	$2,500/mo Readiness (~$30K ACV, entry wedge) · $12K 90-day Pilot (one-time, pilot-to-production entry) · $10,000/mo Core ($120K ACV) · $20,000/mo Operator ($240K ACV) · $1M+/yr Platform	Primary SaaS ARR
Verified API	Starter free · Build pure usage · Scale $2.5K + $0.30/verif · Platform custom	Usage + tiered ARR

Cached-replay margin: every cached source response avoids a pass-through fee. Margin uplift compounds with network density. Pilot fees are one-time and recognized as services revenue, not ARR.

3. Tier Assumptions

Facility workflow layer (facility SaaS)

Tier	List price → Annual ACV	Target customer
Readiness	$2,500/mo → ~$30,000 ACV	Entry wedge: single provider group or ASC, one roster + one role group, the cheapest paid front door
Pilot	$12,000 (90-day, one-time)	Provider group or ASC, pilot-to-production entry, converts to Core/Operator at day 90
Core	$10,000/mo → $120,000 ACV	Multi-site provider group or ASC, 30, 300 clinicians, 2-4 locations
Operator	$20,000/mo → $240,000 ACV	Multi-site system, recredentialing recurring
Platform	$1,000,000+/yr (custom)	Large IDN / staffing roll-up, custom contract

Blended Operator-tier ACV per paid logo (excludes Pilot one-time fees) by year:

Year	Bear	Base	Bull
Y1	$14,000	$18,000	$22,000
Y2	$35,000	$50,000	$60,000
Y3	$75,000	$90,000	$100,000
Y4	$115,000	$125,000	$140,000
Y5	$160,000	$165,000	$175,000

Blended ACV climbs as the tier mix drifts from Pilot-converted Core ($120K) toward Operator ($240K) and the first Platform contracts. The Y5 blend sits between Core and Operator because most logos by year 5 are Core/Operator, with a handful of multi-Operator-site customers and 1-3 Platform deals pulling the average up. This is the same dynamic NRR/upsell story (130% NRR target), just expressed as a rising blended ACV.

Verified API (developer + platform)

Tier	Pricing
Starter	Free up to 100 verifications/month
Build	Pure usage, $0.50/verif blended (varies by source)
Scale	$2,500/mo platform fee + $0.30/verif (overage)
Platform	Custom enterprise contract (negotiated floor + rate)

Pass-through source fees (Persona, NPDB, Nursys, OIG, sanctions data, primary-source background check) are billed at cost + 15-40% margin depending on source. Cached replay is pure margin.

4. Base Case Build (Y5 = $45M midpoint, range $30-60M Bear-Bull)

Facility workflow layer (Base: paid logos at year end)

Year	New paid logos	Total paid logos	Blended ACV	Operator ARR
Y1	8	8	$18K	$0.14M
Y2	32	40	$50K	$2.00M
Y3	50	90	$90K	$8.10M
Y4	75	165	$125K	$20.63M
Y5	55	220	$165K	$36.30M

Y1 bridge from today's reality (zero pilots, zero design partners). Rōvn is pre-launch: zero paid pilots, zero design partners, zero signed LOIs today. The Y1 Base line (8 paid logos / $0.24M) is not an extrapolation off existing traction, it requires landing the first paid pilots from current outreach (e.g. All Health via Dr. Quadri, an active outreach target, not a signed pilot) within the funded runway. The capital and 12-month milestones that fund this first-pilot motion are detailed in 02.1 Use of Funds. If those first pilots do not land inside the runway, the entire curve shifts right.

Churn assumption: 5% gross annual (90%+ GRR target). NRR target: 130% via tier upgrades (Pilot → Core → Operator → Platform) and Operator multi-site expansion.

Pilot bookings (Base: non-ACV one-time services revenue)

Year	New 90-day Pilots	Pilot bookings (one-time $)
Y1	8	$96,000
Y2	30	$360,000
Y3	60	$720,000
Y4	90	$1,080,000
Y5	120	$1,440,000

Pilots are pilot-to-production engagements. Conversion target: 60% of Pilots convert to Core/Operator at day 90. Pilot fee is recognized as services revenue not ARR. The Y5 220 paid Operator logos above already reflect post-pilot conversions; the Pilot bookings line is purely the one-time onboarding fee from the new pilots run in each year.

Verified API customers (Base)

Year	Paying customers	Avg ACV+usage	API ARR
Y1	2	$0K	$0.00M
Y2	10	$8K	$0.08M
Y3	30	$20K	$0.60M
Y4	60	$40K	$2.40M
Y5	100	$60K	$6.00M

Platform deals (Base)

Year	Platform contracts
Y3	$0.5M (1 entry-Platform contract)
Y4	$2.25M (1-2 Platform contracts)
Y5	$3.0M (2-3 Platform contracts)

Base Y5 reconciliation ($45M midpoint of $30-60M band)

Revenue surface	Y5 (Base midpoint)
Facility workflow SaaS (220 Operator logos × $165K)	$36.3M ARR
Verified API (100 cust × $60K)	$6.0M ARR
Platform (2-3 contracts)	$3.0M ARR
Total Y5 ARR	~$45.3M
Pilot bookings (memo, one-time)	$1.44M services revenue

The Base case is reported as the $30-60M band, midpoint $45M. Lower-band ($30M Bear) and upper-band ($60M Bull) outcomes flex with Operator-tier logo count, blended ACV, and Platform contract velocity. All figures are projections, the company is pre-launch with zero revenue.

Worker count (Passport funnel: free)

Year	Workers (cumulative)	Notes
Y1	2,000	GA / Southeast first-pilot wedge (multi-site provider groups + ASCs)
Y2	15,000	Southeast US
Y3	75,000	Multi-region
Y4	250,000	National
Y5	600,000	~3% of US active nursing workforce (illustrative funnel assumption, not a forecast)

Workers are not directly monetized in Base. They power the facility workflow demand-side (facilities search verified profiles) and Verified API (more workers = more reusable cached verifications = higher margin).

Cached-replay margin uplift (Base: same as prior draft, unchanged)

Year	% verifs from cache	Gross margin on API
Y1	0%	40% (raw pass-through markup)
Y2	15%	47.8%
Y3	35%	58.2%
Y4	55%	68.6%
Y5	70%	76.4%

Compounding margin curve is the proprietary moat. Detailed in KPI_DEFINITIONS.md.

5. Bear Case Build (Y5 = $30M floor)

Assumptions: slower facility adoption, no Platform deals, API stays small, blended ACV lags Base by ~$5-10K.

Year	Operator logos	Operator ACV	Operator ARR	API ARR	Platform	Pilot bk (memo)	Total ARR
Y1	5	$14K	$0.07M	$0.00M	$0	$0.06M	$0.07M
Y2	25	$35K	$0.88M	$0.03M	$0	$0.24M	$0.91M
Y3	55	$75K	$4.13M	$0.36M	$0	$0.48M	$4.49M
Y4	100	$115K	$11.50M	$1.75M	$0	$0.72M	$13.25M
Y5	150	$160K	$24.00M	$4.40M	$0	$0.96M	$28.40M

Bear assumes design-partner outreach works but national expansion is slower and zero Platform deals close. Founder still hits Series A discussion at this trajectory ($30M ARR @ 6-8x = $180-240M EV).

6. Bull Case Build (Y5 = $60M ceiling)

Assumptions: 2-3 Platform deals land by Y4, API becomes standard for healthcare staffing platforms, Operator mix accelerates.

Year	Operator logos	Operator ACV	Operator ARR	API ARR	Platform	Pilot bk (memo)	Total ARR
Y1	12	$22K	$0.26M	$0.01M	$0	$0.14M	$0.27M
Y2	55	$60K	$3.30M	$0.15M	$0	$0.48M	$3.45M
Y3	130	$100K	$13.00M	$1.00M	$2.25M	$0.96M	$15.50M
Y4	210	$140K	$29.40M	$3.38M	$3.5M	$1.44M	$36.28M
Y5	290	$175K	$50.75M	$7.80M	$6.5M	$1.92M	$65.05M

Bull case requires: - 1+ Platform deal by Y3 (e.g., national staffing agency, MSP, or large IDN) - API standardization with at least one major EHR / ATS / HRIS integration - 290 paying facility logos = ~0.1% of US healthcare facilities (~280K addressable)

Bull is reported with a soft cap at ~$60M for investor consistency, internal model shows ~$65M Bull but founder discipline is to under-promise on Bull and let actuals over-deliver.

7. Worker Funnel Math

Worker tier (free) drives: 1. Facility supply-side value: more verified workers = more reasons for facilities to subscribe to the facility-operator tier. 2. API margin: more workers = more cached verifications = higher gross margin. 3. Network effects: every credential renewal stays on Rōvn; recredentialing recurring revenue compounds.

Worker-to-facility ratio assumption: 1,500-4,000 workers per paying facility logo at maturity (illustrative funnel assumption, not a forecast). Y5 Base: 600K workers / 220 facilities = 2,727. Within range for the new focused-ICP model (higher-quality logos service more workers each).

8. Sensitivity / Key Drivers

Driver	Bear → Bull swing	Y5 ARR impact
Operator blended ACV	$160K → $175K	+$3M
Operator logos	150 → 290	+$22M
Platform deals	0 → 3	+$6.5M
API customer count	80 → 175	+$3M
Cached-replay margin	50% → 86%	margin, not ARR
NRR	100% → 130%	+$8M on base

Biggest swing: logo count × blended ACV (Operator-tier line item). At $120-240K ACV, every 10 additional Operator logos = $2.4M ARR. Pre-seed investors should look at the logo cadence curve as the leading indicator, not raw workers.

9. Defensibility of Base Case

Y5 $45M ARR midpoint blends facility workflow SaaS (~$36.3M across 220 Operator logos at $165K blended), Verified API (~$6M), and Platform (~$3M). Logo count at <0.1% of the ~280K addressable US healthcare facilities (estimated 5.7K hospitals + 6K ASCs + 15K SNFs + 250K physician practices).
Penetration at <0.1% of addressable market. Quality over velocity.
~$6M Y5 API revenue at the midpoint = several million paid verifications/year (industry credential verification spend ≈ $4B/yr).
Comp benchmark: Verifiable, an independent healthcare-credentialing API (raised $27M Series B, Craft Ventures, 2023), runs the rails-only model Rōvn extends with workflow, receipts, and an operating layer. Rōvn Y5 Base assumes ~100 API customers at ~$60K avg (~$6M API ARR) + 220 Operator logos, defensible if cached-replay UX wins on price and Pilot conversion holds at 60%.
Strategic comp: credentialing / provider-data and vertical healthcare-SaaS platforms transact at mid-single to low-double-digit revenue multiples (see 02.5 Comp Multiples for cited rounds, Medallion, CertifyOS, Andros, symplr). Rōvn Y5 Base $45M × 8-10x → ~$360-450M Y5 EV is a reasonable Series B / strategic-exit anchor.

10. Pricing Hygiene: Confirmation

Readiness: $2,500/month = ~$30,000 ACV per facility. The canonical entry wedge / cheapest paid front door (one roster + one role group), expands up the ladder into Pilot / Core / Operator.
Pilot: $12,000 for 90 days (one-time, white-glove onboarding included). Converts to Core ($10,000/mo · $120K ACV) or Operator ($20,000/mo · $240K ACV) at day 90. No annual ACV at the Pilot stage, this is a one-time pilot-to-production engagement fee, recognized as services revenue, not ARR.
Core: $10,000/month = $120,000 ACV per paid logo per year.
Operator: $20,000/month = $240,000 ACV per paid logo per year.
Platform: $1M+ custom annual contract.
Cached-replay pricing: cached verifications are billed at the same list price; margin capture is on Rōvn's side, not customer-facing discount.
Worker premium SKU: POST-launch upside, not in 5-year Base. Excluded.

End of summary.

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